Electricity price forecast 2026 – what happens to prices this autumn and winter?

Published: June 2026

The winter of 2025/26 was more expensive than most forecasts predicted. A snow-poor winter emptied the water reservoirs in the north, nuclear maintenance limited production in the south and cold temperatures across much of Europe drove up prices on the continent — which fed directly into Swedish electricity prices. Now that summer is here and prices are temporarily falling, the question is what autumn and winter 2026/27 have in store.

The answer is that uncertainty is unusually high.

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Why are electricity prices elevated right now?

Swedish electricity prices are driven by a combination of domestic and European factors that are all pointing in the same direction at the moment.

The hydrological balance — the combined water content in snow, soil and reservoirs — is close to record low levels for the time of year according to Vattenfall. This is because May was marked by low precipitation and high-pressure weather across the entire country. Hydropower accounts for roughly 40 percent of Sweden's electricity production and normally acts as a price buffer. When reservoirs are low that buffer weakens and the market becomes more sensitive to disruptions.

Nuclear power is also contributing to the tension. Ongoing maintenance at plants including Ringhals and Forsmark is limiting production capacity in southern Sweden, exactly when demand is highest.

Beyond the domestic factors, the situation in Europe is strained. Gas stocks on the continent are unusually low, partly as a result of ongoing geopolitical conflicts that have restricted access to fossil gas. Because Sweden's electricity grid is connected to Europe, high European prices are exported directly to Swedish consumers.

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What does the forecast say for autumn and winter 2026?

The futures market, which provides the best available indication of future electricity prices, has stabilised at relatively high levels for the coming months. Contracts for winter 2026/27 indicate continued high prices — a sign that the market expects the underlying problems to persist.

The forecast can change quickly however, depending on:

Gävle Energi summarises the situation clearly: a rainy summer and eased geopolitical tensions could bring prices down, but prolonged conflicts and drought have the potential to lead to new record-high electricity prices this autumn.

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Large price differences between north and south

One thing the forecast is clearer on is that the differences between Sweden's four electricity zones will persist. Southern Sweden, particularly SE3 and SE4, has structurally higher electricity prices because production there is more strained and dependence on imports and nuclear power is greater.

During summer 2026, prices in SE1 and SE2 are expected to be around 25–35 öre per kWh, while SE3 and SE4 are expected to be around 40–70 öre per kWh during the same period. Heading into autumn, the gap risks widening further if the water reservoirs do not refill sufficiently.

Want to know which electricity zone you belong to and how it affects your electricity price? Read our guide on electricity zones in Sweden.

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Variable or fixed electricity price — what suits you now?

This is the question many households are asking right now. And there is no simple answer.

Variable electricity price means you share in the price movements directly — up and down. During summer this can give low bills, but autumn and winter can be noticeably expensive if the forecasts prove correct.

Fixed electricity price gives predictability and protection against peaks. The downside is that you pay a premium — the futures market builds in risk premiums, which makes fixed contracts more expensive on average over the long term.

Quarter-price contracts, which Fortum offers, are a middle ground that updates every 15 minutes based on the spot price and lets you shift consumption to cheaper hours.

The most important thing is to have a contract that suits your situation and your appetite for risk. Read our guide on fixed vs variable electricity price to understand the pros and cons of each contract type, or our guide on how to choose the right electricity plan for a more comprehensive overview.

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What can you do now?

The smartest thing you can do before an uncertain autumn is to make sure you have the right electricity contract in place — not when the bills have already arrived.

Compare current electricity plans at Wipick Electricity and see what applies to your electricity zone. You can also find tips on how to reduce your electricity usage and how to understand your electricity bill if you want a better understanding of what you are actually paying for.

Also see Wipick Best Right Now for our current recommendations on which electricity plans offer the best value right now.

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Summary

Electricity prices in Sweden are being affected during 2026 by low water reservoirs, limited nuclear capacity and high gas prices in Europe. The futures market indicates continued high prices heading into autumn and winter 2026/27, particularly in southern Sweden. Summer weather and geopolitical developments are the factors most likely to shift the picture in either direction.

It is a good time to review your electricity contract before autumn — and to understand which electricity zone you belong to.